Samenvatting

Using data from judicial documentation on adult adjudicated offenders in the Netherlands, an actuarial risk prediction instrument has been developed. StatRec estimates the four year reconviction rate of adult offenders, based on a limited number of static factors. The metric qualities of the scale are good. StatRec produces a precise estimate of the base rate in the group of individuals with the same combination of background characteristics as the offender. The scale does not use dynamic and situational factors that may influence the risk of reoffending. Taking them into account only slightly enhances the predictive power. StatRec can be used to validate more specific risk assessment tools.