2024 and beyond: never a dull moment

Zef Even

When writing this editorial, 2024 has just begun. The beginning of a new year always makes me wonder what lies ahead in our shared field of expertise, EU employment law and employment policy.
The answer to this question may derive from a meeting on 16 and 17 November 2023 of the European Employment and Social Rights Forum. The event focused on the impact of Artificial Intelligence on the world of work. When discussing the European Pillar of Social Rights, the question was asked which ‘megatrend’ will have the biggest impact on EU welfare states and social protection systems. Somewhat to my surprise this was, according to about 40% of the audience and three out of four of the keynote speakers, not digitalization and technological change, not geopolitical developments, not the changing world of work, nor climate change and the green transition. It was, in fact, demographic changes.
I ended up looking into it and discovered that much on this topic can be found in the high-level report on the future of social protection and of the welfare state in the European Union of January 2023. Apparently, our welfare state has been shaped in a period in which the number of people of working age was increasing faster than the number of children and older people. Currently, we see a sharp fall in the fertility rate in the European Union and an increasing life expectancy. It is projected that the EU population aged 75 or over will increase from 43.8 million in 2020 to 75.4 million in 2050. This will lead to increased demand not only for longer pension payments, but also for health and long-term care. This gives rise to an increased need for both financial and human resources, including well-paid care workers. According to the report, we need to attract skilled third country migrants, in line with the need for labour, but without depriving emerging economies of their most talented people. All in all, not an easy task ahead. A task that, however, falls within the scope of the European Pillar of Social Rights. The Pillar, after all, includes social protection, old age income and pensions and health care. We can expect measures to be taken on an EU level to counter this demographic challenge. Likewise, we can expect Member States opposing the solution of attracting third country migrants. In the Netherlands, for example, elections resulted in a victory for a party that has a strong anti-immigration campaign.
Given the above, EU employment law and social policy will most likely remain interesting, just as today’s developments in these fields are. Some of these developments we discuss here. Notable new cases on EU employment law that are discussed in this edition concern: equal treatment, information and consultation, agency work, and paid leave. Apart from that, Professor Catherine Barnard has written a very interesting article on UK post-Brexit legislation. Never a dull moment. Enjoy!

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