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Expert Judgement geeft crisisteam continu ­inzicht in effectiviteit van maatregelen

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 1 2021
Trefwoorden Continu inzicht, Expert Judgement, Impact inschatting, Flood risk management, Besluitvorming
Auteurs Hanneke Vreugdenhil, Bas Kolen, Martin Nieuwenhuis e.a.
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Crisis teams from waterauthorities want to have insight into the current risks for the area. The ‘Continuous insight’-method is used by them to monitor the risks of drought and high water and to draw up what-if scenarios for training and exercise. Various cases have now shown that Expert Judgment can be used to gain a clearer picture of the effectiveness of measures and to take a more balanced decision. The Expert Judgment method has been tested and applied by a group of international experts as part of the EU project DRIVER +. During an extreme situation, the crisis team may encounter dilemmas. The engaged group of experts follows a fixed procedure to provide advice to reduce flood risk evacuate to prevent loss of life.
    Each expert makes his own assessment of the effect and impact of the measure envisaged. Each expert provides an explanation of the individual assessment. Then, under the guidance of a process supervisor, the experts discuss individual assessments and exchange arguments. This can lead to new insights. Each expert makes his own assessment again. The result is a probability distribution of estimates and an expected value. This expert assessment of the measure is taken to the crisis team, so that the chance of success and the assessment of the consequences of the proposed measure can be adjusted. The crisis team can take the decision immediately afterwards.
    By following this procedure risk information is made visible. By linking expert knowledge with observations, a better substantiated expectation can be drawn up. According to the participants in the international meetings, the Expert Judgment method in combination with ‘Continuous insight’ helps to make better informed and faster choices. The method fits within the existing crisis management structure. The next step is to implement this method in the day-to-day affairs of crisis management.


Hanneke Vreugdenhil
Hanneke Vreugdenhil is werkzaam bij HKV. h.vreugdenhil@hkv.nl

Bas Kolen
Bas Kolen is directeur van HKV, de kennisondernemer voor water en veiligheid. secretariaat@hkv.nl

Martin Nieuwenhuis
Martin Nieuwenhuis is werkzaam bij Waterschap Rijn en IJssel. m.nieuwenhuis@wrij.nl

Marcel van der Doef
Marcel van der Doef is werkzaam bij Waterschap Brabantse Delta. m.van.der.doef@brabantsedelta.nl

Jan van der Lingen
Jan van der Lingen is werkzaam bij Hoogheemraadschap Hollands Noorderkwartier. j.vanderlingen@hhnk.nl

André de Rond
André de Rond is werkzaam bij Veiligheidsregio Haaglanden. andre.de.rond@vrh.nl

Marit Zethof
Marit Zethof is werkzaam bij HKV. m.zethof@hkv.nl

Mattijn van Hoek
Mattijn van Hoek is werkzaam bij HKV. m.vanhoek@hkv.nl
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