Tore Bjørgo was one of the initiators to gather an international group of researchers to join forces casting light on the subject of counter-terrorism. Together with John Horgan he edited a volume Leaving Terrorism Behind. In this article he focuses on the push- and pull factors influencing the decision to dissent from terrorism. It also discusses the ways in which counter terrorism policies can influence these processes.

This article presents an overview of the main determinants of radicalization and terrorism. Experienced discrimination plays an important role, and can be seen as threatening. This could amplify the importance of ideology and religious convictions, and these both unify the group and direct the behavior of the group. Perceived threats also result in emphasizing group identity and increases the cohesiveness of the threatened group. This may lead to polarization between groups and radicalization. This radicalization is also affected by cognitions, such as perceived inequity and injustice, as well as emotions such as anger and contempt. In a later phase of radicalization group processes, such as groupthink, and support from the wider social group may further strengthen radicalization. Justification processes, like dehumanizing the opponent, are also likely to play a role. Finally, the transition from radicalization to terrorism is discussed.

What do we know about radicalization and radical groups? This thematic issue focuses on these questions and this introduction sketches the outlines of the subject. Many researchers studied this subject from different angles, using various research techniques and sources of information.

Accounts of radicalization and of social movements are often flawed by a static understanding of participation in radical networks. By analyzing the practices of the Salafi movement and its participants in reviving, establishing and nurturing a moral community of true believers I will explore how participation in this movement is sustained. I will show that by teaching young Muslims a particular lifestyle, exemplifying what it means to be a true believer, the Salafi movement tries to establish a position as the moral guardian of the Muslim community. For Muslim youth in this movement the activities are a means to evoke and nurture the experience of belonging and an essential practice for being part of the community of true believers.

In this article we deal with the role of government in encouraging the decline of radical movements. We use the survey of factors promoting decline reported by Demant et al. (2008a). This overview will be further developed regarding the factor ‘official policy strategies’ on the basis of certain concepts taken from discourse analysis, adapted to counterterrorism and deradicalization strategies by De Graaf in 2009. The question posed is: ‘Which “narrative” can the government tell to encourage the decline of radical groups?’ We will therefore not address the different practical measures in this field, but focus instead on the perception of these official measures by the radicals. We will illustrate this process by means of a case-study: the deradicalization of South Moluccan youths in the 1970s. We will furthermore draw some lines to deradicalization of Jihadist radicals after 2001, also in the Netherlands.

Developmental trajectories are estimated of 147 high-risk girls from 12 to 32, based on conviction data. Four trajectories are identified: adolescence-limited, low frequency desisting, high frequency desisting, late onset. Despite their high delinquency risk, only few girls developed a long-term criminal career. Girls in the trajectories differ with regard to intelligence, self-concept, social skills, aggression, personality disorders, and divorced parents. For each trajectory a profile is given, based on type of offences, personality and background characteristics.

Recidivism after a community service is compared to recidivism after imprisonment in a matched sample of adult Dutch offenders. We use longitudinal, official record data to compare recidivism over a maximum of eight years. ‘Propensity score matching’ and ‘matching by variable’ are used to take selection-effects into account. After a community service offenders turn out to recidivate less than after a prison sanction.

How many criminal suspects become victims themselves? A high correlation of offence and victimisation is to be expected because of a marked similarity between offenders and victims. We assume that offenders strongly fulfil the lifestyle and environment criteria, associated with an increased risk of victimisation. By studying self-reported victimisation data from 39.978 respondents, matched to registered criminal suspects, we verified our assumption that criminal suspects are at considerably higher risk of being victims. This correlation is especially high for crimes of violence and for people suspected of multiple crimes.

Using data from judicial documentation on adult adjudicated offenders in the Netherlands, an actuarial risk prediction instrument has been developed. StatRec estimates the four year reconviction rate of adult offenders, based on a limited number of static factors. The metric qualities of the scale are good. StatRec produces a precise estimate of the base rate in the group of individuals with the same combination of background characteristics as the offender. The scale does not use dynamic and situational factors that may influence the risk of reoffending. Taking them into account only slightly enhances the predictive power. StatRec can be used to validate more specific risk assessment tools.

Based on an analysis of twenty five years of articles in Tijdschrift voor Criminologie, we describe developments in the use of research methods and tools. One of the questions is how and to what extent new techniques are adopted over the years and whether certain sources of data become more or less popular. Almost half of the articles were non-empirical, and of the remainder the majority primarily made use of quantitative research methods. In the second half of the period under study, the use of secondary data, collected and often processed by people other than the researcher in question, became much more prominent. Amongst other elements, international comparative research was scarce, as was the use of experimental designs. About one-third of all empirical articles were based on qualitative research. We give some suggestions to increase variation among the kind of articles published in the journal.

This article briefly outlines the origin and development in the past fifty years of institutions in the Netherlands and Flanders which have explicitly been labelled ‘criminological’. There are remarkable differences in developments between both regions. But in The Netherlands as well as in Flanders criminology has grown over the course of a century from a very modest phenomenon in the margin of criminal policy to a fully-fledged specialisation in socio-scientific and criminal research in universities, and a recognised qualification on the labour market.

It has been ten years since an overview on contributing authors in Tijdschrift voor Criminologie was presented. This sequel pays attention to the backgrounds of the authors, the content of their articles, the quotations and their organisational backgrounds. In addition, attention has been given to authors that have contributed most and for the longest time. The number of female contributors and entries from Flemish criminologists has increased, as well as those from authors with a specific criminological background. Content-wise there is greater focus on matters such as recidivism and life course, and topics related to violence, sex offenses and organised crime. A considerable number of authors have NSCR backgrounds.

This article first addresses the tension between scientific requirements and policy oriented criminological research. The article then proceeds to describe the historical development of policy oriented criminology in the Netherlands. This narrative can be divided into three phases: early history, the years 1980-1995 and the period from 1995. Criminology in the Netherlands has always had and retains a strong policy orientation. The growth of professional (academic) criminology is a relatively recent phenomenon. ‘Critical’ and ‘public’ criminology always have been and remain the work of individuals. The development of policy oriented criminological research in the Netherlands appears dependent on governmental involvement. The situations in Belgium and the USA give the same impression.

The primary goal of this article is to survey the various criminological study programmes in the Netherlands and Flanders and of the jobs students attain after graduating in criminology. The theoretical question posed is to what extent the enormous expansion of criminology over the last decade has contributed to the scientific development of criminology as a discipline and to better-informed crime policies. Though the answer to this question remains limited to an ‘it depends on how you look at it’ position, the author is not pessimistic. Taking into account the current grim penal climate and the fact that the criminologist is a relative newcomer on the Dutch labour market, the positions criminology students have been able to gain – with jobs within the police force, in research and policy-development as prime fields – give reason to be hopeful, if reflexivity and overview remain the primary educational goals and practical skills training is not seen as the ‘trick box’ for the ‘quick fix’ of the safety problem.

Fifty years ago Tijdschrift voor Criminologie, the Dutch Journal for Criminology, appeared for the first time. It has now developed into a peer reviewed journal with quantitative and qualitative research of high quality. Youth and life course criminology, research into organised and organisational crime, criminographical research, and research into violence are strongly represented nowadays. Changes in the journal reflect more general developments in criminology in the Netherlands and Belgium. In the last 10-15 years the discipline has become more internationally oriented and professional, and scientific backgrounds of criminologists have become more diverse.

Wim Slot reviews Violence risk assessment in adolescents in the Dutch juvenile justice system. Studies on the reliability and predictive accuracy of the SAVRY written by H. Lodewijks.

Based on a prize-winning master thesis in criminology, this article describes how the Rwandan Government chose to bring to justice all suspects of (crimes during) the 1994 genocide. Accordingly, it was decided to turn to Gacaca, the traditional Rwandan method of dispute resolution, in order to reach reconciliation as well as justice. A field study indicates that, when asked whether they think Gacaca can lead to reconciliation and justice, the majority of Rwandans think it can. However, six determinants of reconciliation have been deduced from the interviews. Because Gacaca can only have a clear positive impact on one of these factors – the need to meet – Gacaca can not be considered as an appropriate mechanism to achieve reconciliation in Rwanda. It also appears that justice is not a determinant for reconciliation.

This study investigates criminal trajectories of individuals involved in organised crime. It combines qualitative information from the Organized Crime Monitor with rap sheets extracted from the Dutch Judicial Documentation System. A semi-parametric group model is used to cluster 854 individuals into groups with similar developmental trajectories, preceding the organised crime index case. Four judicial trajectories are identified: an early starters group with a high peak in late adolescence (11 percent); a persistent group of offenders with crimes from early adolescence until adulthood (30 percent); a unique group of adult onset offenders (40 percent); and a group of offenders without judicial contacts prior to the index case (19 percent). Largely, suspects who fulfilled different roles in criminal groups (leaders, coordinators, lower-level suspects) are equally distributed over the trajectory groups and the same applies to different types of criminal activities.