The structural vulnerability of the port of Rotterdam to organized crime is dealt with in this article from a broader, historical perspective. Using examples from ports in Italy and the United States, among others, the author shows how at the end of the last century local criminal groups managed to gain a dominant position in the handling of good flows. The author discusses various research reports that have been published over the years on the import of drugs into the port of Rotterdam and other European ports. Drug traffickers turn out to respond very flexible to stricter controls by simply moving to alternative ports or opting for transferring drug loads to small fast boats in open water. The author emphasizes that ports should not be studied as isolated transition points, but must be considered as nodes in networks that extend far inland and abroad. This is the only way to see the broader strategic and tactical options for stopping or reducing drug trafficking. In addition, attention must be paid to the problem of corruption among port workers, police and customs officers.

This ethnography of everyday policing realities in the European ports of Rotterdam and Hamburg presents an understanding of policing spaces where protecting and supporting global commerce dominate. In undertaking this research, the author participated in the daily activities of 85 participants in Rotterdam (N=52) and Hamburg (N=33), consisting of 30 operational port police officers, 31 security officers, 10 customs officers and 14 others involved in port security-related matters (e.g. shipping agents, port authorities, boatmen and maritime engineers). These participants were collectively responsible for protecting the vulnerability of the just-in-time logistics by becoming the intervention, through which they become the very local threat to global commerce itself. A struggle that reveals itself in their (narrated) policing struggles with management, colleagues and multi-agency partners, as well as with the maritime business community and dangerous others.

In this article, a recently published Dutch book on corruption in the port of Rotterdam is reviewed. De Schiedamse cocaïnemaffia. Een corrupte douanier, doorgewinterde criminelen en duizenden kilo’s coke was written by journalist Jan Meeus from NRC Handelsblad. The book can be seen as a case study of a customs officer – Gerrit – who fell for the big money. It gives a good insight into the connection between the legal and the illegal world and how this is experienced by those involved. The information in the book is based on seven large criminal files and dozens of conversations with people mentioned in those files. Meeus also attended the criminal proceedings intensively. It is now known that the film rights of the book have been sold and that Meeus will be writing the screenplay for the feature film together with director Jean van der Velde.

The Netherlands functions as an important source and transit country for international organized drug trafficking. This is in part due to its large logistical nodes in the world economy, like the airport and the seaport. Based on in-depth analyses of sixteen cases of the Dutch Organized Crime Monitor, this article explores how drug traffickers operate at logistical nodes, in particular airports. The results demonstrate that organized crime groups deploy mainly three types of tactics to traffic drugs, namely defying, avoiding, and neutralizing security checks. Occupational embeddedness is manifested through several job-related factors. Autonomy, mobility, and the similarity between legitimate duties and criminal activities facilitate discrete engagement in organized crime activities during work time. Port employees are also attractive to organized crime groups because of their job-related social capital and knowledge.

This article focuses on the challenges associated with public-private partnerships in tackling drug crime in the port of Rotterdam. The authors identified the actors involved in the fight against drug crime and, more generally, security in the port. The authors show how these various actors view the subject of drug crime (so-called mentalities), what they set as objectives (finalities) and how they try to achieve these objectives. Subsequently the various aspects of the interactions between these actors are being analyzed. The article is empirically based on 76 interviews with public and private actors in the port of Rotterdam, that were conducted in the period from January 2018 to February 2019, and an analysis of literature, news items, government reports and other documents.

Trendwatching is a tool to get a better grip on what happens next and as such it is used by the Dutch Financial and Fiscal Investigation Service (FIOD) to explore possible futures of financial crime with a time lap of two years. The author describes how trendwatching works. In this case a platform Trends4fi (www.trends4fi.org) was created with a website, a mobile app and trend groups to generate foresights in cooperation with connected networks from public and private organisations. This is called network trendwatching, in fact a social intelligence tool designed to generate as much new information and new insights on developments which might have an impact on financial crime and the fight against it.

Threats, vulnerabilities, and new forms of attack within the cyber domain develop rapidly. To keep up with and respond to these trends, cyber security professionals must demonstrate reaction velocity, accuracy and a high tolerance for complexity. Publicly available information (PAI) can serve as an important aid to personnel engaged in cyber security analysis. However, evaluation of cyber analytical capacity – a pre-requisite for any measurement of quality or improvement – is still inchoate. This article covers the concept and design of an initial phase of research begun in October 2018 in The Netherlands to measure and improve cyber analysis techniques. The research program features a forecasting tournament to record participants’ probabilistic estimates on future cyber outcomes based exclusively on PAI knowledge acquisition. This phase of research seeks to address whether analysts’ predictions are more accurate in certain subjects within the cyber domain than in others and to assess how predictive accuracy in the cyber domain compares to accuracy in other domains in which forecasting tournaments have been organized.

This article focusses on the question whether quantitative modelling and simulation is useful for judicial forecasting, ex-ante testing of judicial policies, and (re)designing chains of organisations like the judicial chain. Specific attention is given to methods that can be used in the face of complexity and deep uncertainty. That is, when facing many substantial uncertainties. Complexity and uncertainty are first of all focused on. Subsequently, modelling methods for dealing with complexity and uncertainty are discussed in more detail, examples are given, and the process needed to build such models in a participatory way is discussed.

In the field of policymaking, there is a growing need to take advantage of the opportunities that big data predictions offer. A strong point of big data is that the large amounts of data that are collected nowadays can be re-used to find new insights. However, for effective use in policymaking it is also important to take into account the relating limitations and challenges. For example, the quality of the data used can be a problem. Outdated data and data of which the semantics have changed, may result in predictions that are no longer correct. In addition, it is difficult to apply predictions to individual cases or people. In this article authors provide various practical recommendations for dealing with these problems. As long as people are aware of the limitations and handle the results with care, big data models can be a useful addition to traditional methods in the field of policymaking.

What are the most important threats for national security in the following years? What do we foresee for the longer term? How are threats interrelated? In this article, we discuss the work of the Dutch Network of Safety and Security Analysts (ANV), which deals with this type of questions since 2011. The main task of this multidisciplinary network is to provide input for the National Security Strategy. It does so by providing an Integrated Risk analysis and a Horizon scan National Security. The authors discuss the foresight-methods used by the network (scenario studies and horizon scanning techniques), as well as the most important conclusions from both studies.

This is a review of the book Met de kennis van morgen. Toekomst verkennen voor de Nederlandse overheid (‘With the knowledge of tomorrow. Exploring the future for the Dutch government’), published at the end of 2018. The bundle contains ten contributions written by authors working at various Dutch advisory boards and planning agencies. The articles do not discuss subjects belonging to the Justice and Security domain. But they are certainly relevant in terms of methods and approach.

In Circles of Support and Accountability (COSA) a group of trained and supervised volunteers support a medium to high-risk sex offender in his process of re-entry after detention. Sex offenders participate on a voluntary basis. Circles have a double aim: the prevention of new sexual offences and the rehabilitation of the sex offender. Circles offer social inclusion and support for behavior change, and monitor risk. They are embedded in the professional network of sex offender after care. Through a professional circle coordinator relevant information is circulated between the circle and professional agencies, to enable adequate support and interventions. Effect studies show that COSA contributes to a reduced risk of reoffending. The model was developed in Canada almost 25 years ago and has been picked up by a growing number of countries in Europe, the America’s, Asia, as well as Australia and New Zealand. Variations in the model become apparent and raise questions about the essentials of COSA.

Dutch legal scholars have expressed their concern over an increase in (the relevance of) supervision as part of the criminal sanction system. They endorse the need for a more fundamental research on the nature and position of supervision within the Dutch criminal sanction system. This article discusses some fundamental issues: the meaning of autonomy and the position of the autonomous person as an object of supervision, the possible consequences of supervision for and the various purposes of supervision within the criminal sanction system.

How can technological tools contribute to supervising and reintegrating offenders in society? Globally, technological tools for supervision are broken down into so-called first generation (GPS tracking) and second generation (smartphone and sensor technology). An overview is given of what is globally known about the effectiveness and assumed mechanisms of action of first-generation technical tools. Then it is explored what added value second-generation technical aids can have and to which working mechanisms they could connect. Smartphone and sensor technology have the potential to contribute to the rehabilitation functions of the supervision, inter alia because they offer possibilities for more personalized supervision and for the combination of supervision and treatment. Although initiatives have been started in this regard and research is ongoing, hardly anything is known yet about the effectiveness of these new technological applications. The reliability and safety of IT, as well as ethical and legal aspects also require attention.