The structural vulnerability of the port of Rotterdam to organized crime is dealt with in this article from a broader, historical perspective. Using examples from ports in Italy and the United States, among others, the author shows how at the end of the last century local criminal groups managed to gain a dominant position in the handling of good flows. The author discusses various research reports that have been published over the years on the import of drugs into the port of Rotterdam and other European ports. Drug traffickers turn out to respond very flexible to stricter controls by simply moving to alternative ports or opting for transferring drug loads to small fast boats in open water. The author emphasizes that ports should not be studied as isolated transition points, but must be considered as nodes in networks that extend far inland and abroad. This is the only way to see the broader strategic and tactical options for stopping or reducing drug trafficking. In addition, attention must be paid to the problem of corruption among port workers, police and customs officers.

This ethnography of everyday policing realities in the European ports of Rotterdam and Hamburg presents an understanding of policing spaces where protecting and supporting global commerce dominate. In undertaking this research, the author participated in the daily activities of 85 participants in Rotterdam (N=52) and Hamburg (N=33), consisting of 30 operational port police officers, 31 security officers, 10 customs officers and 14 others involved in port security-related matters (e.g. shipping agents, port authorities, boatmen and maritime engineers). These participants were collectively responsible for protecting the vulnerability of the just-in-time logistics by becoming the intervention, through which they become the very local threat to global commerce itself. A struggle that reveals itself in their (narrated) policing struggles with management, colleagues and multi-agency partners, as well as with the maritime business community and dangerous others.

This article focusses on the question whether quantitative modelling and simulation is useful for judicial forecasting, ex-ante testing of judicial policies, and (re)designing chains of organisations like the judicial chain. Specific attention is given to methods that can be used in the face of complexity and deep uncertainty. That is, when facing many substantial uncertainties. Complexity and uncertainty are first of all focused on. Subsequently, modelling methods for dealing with complexity and uncertainty are discussed in more detail, examples are given, and the process needed to build such models in a participatory way is discussed.