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Artikel

Expert Judgement geeft crisisteam continu ­inzicht in effectiviteit van maatregelen

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 1 2021
Trefwoorden Continu inzicht, Expert Judgement, Impact inschatting, Flood risk management, Besluitvorming
Auteurs Hanneke Vreugdenhil, Bas Kolen, Martin Nieuwenhuis e.a.
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Crisis teams from waterauthorities want to have insight into the current risks for the area. The ‘Continuous insight’-method is used by them to monitor the risks of drought and high water and to draw up what-if scenarios for training and exercise. Various cases have now shown that Expert Judgement can be used to gain a clearer picture of the effectiveness of measures and to take a more balanced decision. The Expert Judgement method has been tested and applied by a group of international experts as part of the EU project DRIVER +. During an extreme situation, the crisis team may encounter dilemmas. The engaged group of experts follows a fixed procedure to provide advice to reduce flood risk evacuate to prevent loss of life.
    Each expert makes his own assessment of the effect and impact of the measure envisaged. Each expert provides an explanation of the individual assessment. Then, under the guidance of a process supervisor, the experts discuss individual assessments and exchange arguments. This can lead to new insights. Each expert makes his own assessment again. The result is a probability distribution of estimates and an expected value. This expert assessment of the measure is taken to the crisis team, so that the chance of success and the assessment of the consequences of the proposed measure can be adjusted. The crisis team can take the decision immediately afterwards.
    By following this procedure risk information is made visible. By linking expert knowledge with observations, a better substantiated expectation can be drawn up. According to the participants in the international meetings, the Expert Judgement method in combination with ‘Continuous insight’ helps to make better informed and faster choices. The method fits within the existing crisis management structure. The next step is to implement this method in the day-to-day affairs of crisis management.


Hanneke Vreugdenhil
Hanneke Vreugdenhil is werkzaam bij HKV. h.vreugdenhil@hkv.nl

Bas Kolen
Bas Kolen is directeur van HKV, de kennisondernemer voor water en veiligheid. secretariaat@hkv.nl

Martin Nieuwenhuis
Martin Nieuwenhuis is werkzaam bij Waterschap Rijn en IJssel. m.nieuwenhuis@wrij.nl

Marcel van der Doef
Marcel van der Doef is werkzaam bij Waterschap Brabantse Delta. m.van.der.doef@brabantsedelta.nl

Jan van der Lingen
Jan van der Lingen is werkzaam bij Hoogheemraadschap Hollands Noorderkwartier. j.vanderlingen@hhnk.nl

André de Rond
André de Rond is werkzaam bij Veiligheidsregio Haaglanden. andre.de.rond@vrh.nl

Marit Zethof
Marit Zethof is werkzaam bij HKV. m.zethof@hkv.nl

Mattijn van Hoek
Mattijn van Hoek is werkzaam bij HKV. m.vanhoek@hkv.nl
Artikel

De burgemeester als ‘sheriff’ in de aanpak van ondermijnende misdaad: op weg naar een wettelijke grondslag?

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 4 2020
Trefwoorden burgemeester, ondermijning, openbare orde, georganiseerde criminaliteit
Auteurs Benny van der Vorm en Petrus C. van Duyne
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Traditionally, the mayor has an important role as a citizen’s father and as a maintainer of public order. In the context of the so-called ‘undermining’ criminality, the mayor has been increasingly empowered with new legal instruments to combat undermining criminality. Some mayors see themselves as a sheriff. However, in the Dutch Municipal Act, the mayor only has a task of maintaining the public order. How does this task relate to combating undermining criminality? What is the role of the mayor in the combat of undermining criminality? Nowadays, there is no legal basis in the Dutch Municipal Act to equip the mayor with crime-fighting duties. This article proposes to equip the mayor with a legal duty as a crime fighter.


Benny van der Vorm
Benny van der Vorm is universitair docent straf(proces)recht en is verbonden aan het Montaigne Centrum voor Rechtsstaat en Rechtspleging en het Willem Pompe Instituut voor Strafrechtswetenschappen van de Universiteit Utrecht.

Petrus C. van Duyne
Petrus C. van Duyne is emeritus hoogleraar Empirische aspecten van de strafrechtspleging aan de Universiteit van Tilburg.
Artikel

Over crimmigratie en discretionair beslissen binnen het Mobiel Toezicht Veiligheid … of Vreemdelingen … of Veiligheid?

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 2 2015
Trefwoorden Mobiel Toezicht Veiligheid, Crimmigratie, Discretionaire bevoegdheid, Koninklijke Marechaussee
Auteurs Mr. dr. Maartje van der Woude, Tim Dekkers BBA MSc en Jelmer Brouwer MSc
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    This article aims to explore the driving factors behind the process of crimmigration, the merger of crime control and migration control. By analysing the legal and policy framework governing the so-called ‘Mobile Security Monitor’ – the discretionary immigration checks carried out by the Royal Netherlands Marechaussee in the borderlands with Belgium and Germany, the research explores the extent to which the framework might leave room for crimmigration-based decisions on the street level. As the article shows, the dual nature of the Mobile Security Monitor as both an instrument for immigration control and crime control combined with an important name-change and the ongoing securitization of migration in Europe seem to create a favourable environment for crimmigration.


Mr. dr. Maartje van der Woude
Maartje van der Woude is Universitair Hoofddocent Straf(proces)recht aan de Universiteit Leiden en verbonden aan het Instituut voor Strafrecht & Criminologie van dezelfde universiteit.

Tim Dekkers BBA MSc
Tim Dekkers is promovendus Criminologie en verbonden aan het Instituut voor Strafrecht & Criminologie van de Universiteit Leiden.

Jelmer Brouwer MSc
Jelmer Brouwer is promovendus Criminologie en verbonden aan het Instituut voor Strafrecht & Criminologie van de Universiteit Leiden.

    Preventive interventions against terrorist attacks can be justified on legal and moral grounds. The Dutch broad-based approach against terrorism also addresses radicalizations processes. It is, however, hard to justify why a government in a liberal democracy should be allowed to intervene in processes of radicalization where danger to society is not obvious. A reason to justify intervention is when a (former) radical asks for help. Theories based on the ideas of Kant and Rawls also allow for intervention if an individual’s autonomy is diminished because he is member of a sect or under the spell of a charismatic leader. Other interventions with regard to (prevention of) radicalization cannot be justified by deontological theories such as Kant’s and Rawls’. Virtue ethics or teleology would, however, allow interventions but only if they are geared towards helping the individual in their quest to the good life. This justification allows for interventions that are, for example, focused on supporting individuals to critically reflect, reason and discuss about the good life and a just society. Based on the teleological justification constraints can be derived for preventive interventions with regard to radicalization or even deradicalisation. Notice that individuals cannot be forced to join these programs because there is no legal basis.


Anke van Gorp
Dr. ir. Anke van Gorp is onderzoeker en hogeschooldocent Ethiek en Veiligheid aan de Hogeschool Utrecht, Integrale Veiligheidskunde, Faculteit FMR. E-mail: anke.vangorp@hu.nl

Arnold Roosendaal
Mr. Arnold Roosendaal is onderzoeker bij TNO, afdeling Strategy and Policy for the Information Society.
Artikel

Terroristische netwerken en intelligence: een sociale netwerkanalyse van de Hofstadgroep

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 2 2009
Trefwoorden sociale netwerkanalyse, terrorisme, Hofstadgroep
Auteurs Dr. Renée C. van der Hulst
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Radicalization and terrorism remain areas of special interest in terms of security policies. It’s common knowledge that most of the activities related to radicalization and terrorism heavily rely on the involvement of multiple actors. Therefore, an increased understanding of the underlying social structures is considered to offer important leads for the development of effective countermeasures (in particular when related to demographic, cultural, psychological and other social factors). Yet, the number of empirical network studies in this domain (at least those openly available) that incorporate arithmetic tools known as Social Network Analysis (SNA) remain extremely scarce. In this paper the author presents an exploratory Social Network Analysis of the Hofstad network based on publicly available data. Members of the Hofstad network, a radical Islamist network in the Netherlands, were active recruiters for the violent jihad, spreaded radical propaganda, some attended training camps in Pakistan, and the network was suspected of planning several terrorist attacks on strategic objects and prominent people in the Netherlands. One of the members, Mohammed B., was sentenced to life in prison for murdering the Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh in November 2004. Although the Hofstad network was considered by trial as a terrorist organization in the first instance in 2006, the judgment was reversed on appeal in 2008 when most members were acquitted. As is characteristic of home-grown networks, our analysis indicated that the Hofstad network (N=67) was relatively sparse and decentralized and evolved around a more cohesive core of key players (N=13). The key players were identified based on their central network position and a hierarchical clique analysis. Mohammed B., who had been considered a marginal player by the secret service, turns out to be the most central actor of the network. Although the analysis clearly suggests that quantifying network structures provides actionable intelligence, more research is needed to validate the results.


Dr. Renée C. van der Hulst
Dr. Renée C. van der Hulst was tot voor kort als onderzoeker verbonden aan het Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek- en Documentatiecentrum (WODC) van het ministerie van Justitie. Zij is thans werkzaam voor Bureau Netwerkanalyse dat onderzoek-, advies- en onderwijswerkzaamheden verzorgt (onder andere op het gebied van sociale netwerkanalyse) binnen het domein van nationale veiligheid en criminaliteitsbestrijding. Contactadres: Bureau Netwerkanalyse, Postbus 938, 1200 AX Hilversum. E-mail: vanderhulst@online.nl.
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