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Artikel

Regionale risicoprofielen ter versterking van veiligheidscapaciteiten

Overzicht en evaluatie tegen de achtergrond van het externe-veiligheidsbeleid

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 3 2013
Trefwoorden Regional Risk Assessment, all-hazards approach, multi-criteria evaluation, likelihood estimation, risk diagram.
Auteurs Charles Vlek
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    A regional risk profile (RRP) is a systematic ordering – by likelihood and impact seriousness – of identified hazards and threats in one of the Netherlands’ 25 safety regions. Since 2010, RRPs follow the Dutch National Risk Assessment (NRA) as a basis for prioritising regional safety capacities. In Europe, RRPs are proliferating, and the corresponding risk-assessment approach is further spreading internationally. The methodology comprises risk identification, scenario development, multi-criteria impact evaluation, expert likelihood estimation, a two-dimensional risk diagram and an analysis and prioritisation of safety capabilities. A compact overview and discussion is provided of the 25 published RRPs for the Netherlands, each covering between 9 and 40 hazards and threats, along with their most and least worrying risk scenarios. It appears that for many regions pandemic disease, electricity black-out and major flooding are most worrying, while transport accident, industry fire and disturbance of water supply are (relatively) least worrying. Also, in different regions similar risk scenarios (e.g., pandemic disease and electricity black-out) are assessed rather differently, both by likelihood and by impact seriousness. Apparent weaknesses of the RRP (and the NRA) approach so far are, among other: lack of stakeholder involvement, rigid multi-criteria impact evaluation, hybrid methods for likelihood estimation, forced comparison of disparate risk scenarios, and unclear decision rules for risk acceptance. Independent review and validation of major RRP components is recommended for strengthening overall results as a reliable basis for regional safety policies. The ‘new risk thinking’ is considered in view of the long-problematic standard-setting approach about Individual Risk and Group Risk in the framework of Dutch external-safety policies. The RRP approach may be called ambitious and much-demanding. External validation and closer cooperation between safety policy-makers and scientists seem desirable.


Charles Vlek
Prof. dr. Charles Vlek is emeritus hoogleraar omgevingspsychologie en besliskunde aan de Faculteit Gedrags- en Maatschappijwetenschappen, Grote Kruisstraat 2/I, 9712 TS Groningen E-mail: c.a.j.vlek@rug.nl.
Artikel

Veiligheid

Een almaar uitdijend concept

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 1 2012
Trefwoorden problem definition, safety, security, queen’s speeches
Auteurs Sandra Resodihardjo en Anne Kors-Walraven
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    A number of authors claim that the Dutch government is using the words safety and security more often and more broadly. In this article we show that this is partly true. By studying the usage of the word safety in the Dutch queen’s speeches, we see that especially from 1999 onwards the speeches do contain more references to safety and security issues. Moreover, more and more topics are defined as a safety and security issue. However, this same study shows that a decline in the use of the words safety and security can be discerned from 2006 onwards. Ideas to understand these fluctuations are presented at the end of the article.


Sandra Resodihardjo
Dr. S.L. (Sandra) Resodihardjo is werkzaam als universitair docent bij het Institute for Management Research (opleiding Bestuurskunde), Faculteit der Managementwetenschappen, Radboud Universiteit, Nijmegen. E-mail: s.resodihardjo@fm.ru.nl

Anne Kors-Walraven
A.M. (Anne) Kors-Walraven, MSc is afgestudeerd aan het Instituut Bestuurskunde, Faculteit der Sociale Wetenschappen, Universiteit Leiden.
Artikel

De lokale voorzorgcultuur

Over de steeds verder naar voren werkende overheid in de aanpak van sociale onveiligheid

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 2 2010
Trefwoorden voorzorgcultuur, voorzorgprincipe, veiligheidsbeleid, preventie
Auteurs Ruth Prins en Hans Boutellier
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Public safety governance has been characterised in many ways. Literature mentions traditional sanctions for purposes of repression, policy programs aiming for prevention, as well as cooperation of public, private and hybrid organizations in addressing public safety problems. Very recently, a so called culture of precaution, in which problems of public safety are to be addressed at a very early – premature – stage, would have entered the scene. This potential culture of precaution is topic of this article. The article aims to indicate the empirical manifestations of a culture of precaution, as mentioned in literature, in contemporary public safety governance. The central question is as follows: to what extent and in what way is contemporary public safety governance on municipality level characterised by the precautionary principle? Five municipalities within the police region of Utrecht, varying in size from 40.000 to 300.000 citizens, have been studied; Amersfoort, Bunschoten, Utrecht, Woerden and Zeist. In total 153 measures addressing problems of public safety have been analyzed for characteristics of precaution. In order to do so, a model has been developed which locates precaution next to traditional strategies for addressing public safety. It will be demonstrated that a culture of precaution is not empirically present in public safety governance on municipality level. However, contemporary public safety governance does appear to posses some minor characteristics of the precaution paradigm.


Ruth Prins
Ruth Prins is promovendus Burgemeester en Veiligheid, Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam. E-mail: prins@fsw.eur.nl.

Hans Boutellier
Hans Boutellier is algemeen directeur van het Verwey-Jonker Instituut en hoogleraar Veiligheid & Burgerschap aan de Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam. E-mail: jcj.boutellier@fsw.vu.nl.
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