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Justitiële verkenningen

Meer op het gebied van Criminologie en veiligheid

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Aflevering 4, 2019 Alle samenvattingen uitklappen
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Inleiding

Auteurs Bob van der Vecht en Marit Scheepmaker
Auteursinformatie

Bob van der Vecht
Gastredacteur dr. B van der Vecht is als senior researcher verbonden aan TNO. Hij is tevens lid van de redactieraad van Justitiële verkenningen.

Marit Scheepmaker
Mr.drs. M.P.C. Scheepmaker is hoofdredacteur van Justitiële verkenningen.
Artikel

Access_open Toekomstige risico’s voor de nationale veiligheid

Trefwoorden national security, risk analysis, scenarios, horizon scanning, foresight
Auteurs Dr. Minke Meijnders, Ir. Leendert Gooijer en Dr. Hanneke Duijnhoven
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    What are the most important threats for national security in the following years? What do we foresee for the longer term? How are threats interrelated? In this article, we discuss the work of the Dutch Network of Safety and Security Analysts (ANV), which deals with this type of questions since 2011. The main task of this multidisciplinary network is to provide input for the National Security Strategy. It does so by providing an Integrated Risk analysis and a Horizon scan National Security. The authors discuss the foresight-methods used by the network (scenario studies and horizon scanning techniques), as well as the most important conclusions from both studies.


Dr. Minke Meijnders
Dr. M. Meijnders was tot voor kort Research Fellow bij Instituut Clingendael en in die functie betrokken bij het ANV.

Ir. Leendert Gooijer
Ir. Leendert Gooijer is programmacoördinator nationale veiligheid bij het RIVM en tevens Algemeen Secretaris van het ANV.

Dr. Hanneke Duijnhoven
Dr. Hanneke Duijnhoven is Senior scientist nationale veiligheid bij TNO en in die functie betrokken bij het ANV.
Artikel

Voorspellen met big-datamodellen

Over de valkuilen voor beleidsmakers

Trefwoorden Big data, predictive analytics, challenges, data quality, interpretation
Auteurs Dr. Susan van den Braak en Dr. Sunil Choenni
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    In the field of policymaking, there is a growing need to take advantage of the opportunities that big data predictions offer. A strong point of big data is that the large amounts of data that are collected nowadays can be re-used to find new insights. However, for effective use in policymaking it is also important to take into account the relating limitations and challenges. For example, the quality of the data used can be a problem. Outdated data and data of which the semantics have changed, may result in predictions that are no longer correct. In addition, it is difficult to apply predictions to individual cases or people. In this article authors provide various practical recommendations for dealing with these problems. As long as people are aware of the limitations and handle the results with care, big data models can be a useful addition to traditional methods in the field of policymaking.


Dr. Susan van den Braak
Dr. S.W. van den Braak is als senioronderzoeker verbonden aan de afdeling Statistische Informatievoorziening en Beleidsanalyse (SIBa) van het WODC.

Dr. Sunil Choenni
Dr. S. Choenni is als hoofd van de afdeling Statistische Informatievoorziening en Beleidsanalyse (SIBa) werkzaam bij het WODC. Hij is tevens lector Future Information & Communication Technology aan de Hogeschool Rotterdam.

    This article focusses on the question whether quantitative modelling and simulation is useful for judicial forecasting, ex-ante testing of judicial policies, and (re)designing chains of organisations like the judicial chain. Specific attention is given to methods that can be used in the face of complexity and deep uncertainty. That is, when facing many substantial uncertainties. Complexity and uncertainty are first of all focused on. Subsequently, modelling methods for dealing with complexity and uncertainty are discussed in more detail, examples are given, and the process needed to build such models in a participatory way is discussed.


Dr. Erik Pruyt
Dr. E. Pruyt is als universitair hoofddocent Policy Modelling verbonden aan de Technische Universiteit Delft. Hij is tevens founding partner van het Center for Policy Exploration Analysis and Simulation en directeur van het Institute for Grand Challenges.
Artikel

Over Cyber Forecasting-toernooien

Naar een effectiever gebruik van gekwantificeerde voorspelllingen

Auteurs Regina Joseph MSc, Dr. Marieke Klaver, Dr. Judith van de Kuijt e.a.
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Threats, vulnerabilities, and new forms of attack within the cyber domain develop rapidly. To keep up with and respond to these trends, cyber security professionals must demonstrate reaction velocity, accuracy and a high tolerance for complexity. Publicly available information (PAI) can serve as an important aid to personnel engaged in cyber security analysis. However, evaluation of cyber analytical capacity – a pre-requisite for any measurement of quality or improvement – is still inchoate. This article covers the concept and design of an initial phase of research begun in October 2018 in The Netherlands to measure and improve cyber analysis techniques. The research program features a forecasting tournament to record participants’ probabilistic estimates on future cyber outcomes based exclusively on PAI knowledge acquisition. This phase of research seeks to address whether analysts’ predictions are more accurate in certain subjects within the cyber domain than in others and to assess how predictive accuracy in the cyber domain compares to accuracy in other domains in which forecasting tournaments have been organized.


Regina Joseph MSc
R. Joseph M.Sci. is oprichter van de denktank Sibylink, gevestigd in Den Haag.

Dr. Marieke Klaver
Dr. M. Klaver is als onderzoeker verbonden aan TNO.

Dr. Judith van de Kuijt
Dr. J. van de Kuijt is als onderzoeker verbonden aan TNO.

Dr. Diederik van Luijk
Dr. D. van Luijk is werkzaam bij het Nationaal Cyber Security Centrum van het ministerie van Justitie en Veiligheid.

    Trendwatching is a tool to get a better grip on what happens next and as such it is used by the Dutch Financial and Fiscal Investigation Service (FIOD) to explore possible futures of financial crime with a time lap of two years. The author describes how trendwatching works. In this case a platform Trends4fi (www.trends4fi.org) was created with a website, a mobile app and trend groups to generate foresights in cooperation with connected networks from public and private organisations. This is called network trendwatching, in fact a social intelligence tool designed to generate as much new information and new insights on developments which might have an impact on financial crime and the fight against it.


Drs. Andrea Wiegman
Drs. A.K. Wiegman is projectleider van Trends4fi bij de FIOD en auteur van De Tijdgeest ontrafeld. Van Snapshots naar Trends (Boom/Nelissen 2014).
Boekbespreking

Met de kennis van morgen

Auteurs Dr. Bob van der Vecht
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    This is a review of the book Met de kennis van morgen. Toekomst verkennen voor de Nederlandse overheid (‘With the knowledge of tomorrow. Exploring the future for the Dutch government’), published at the end of 2018. The bundle contains ten contributions written by authors working at various Dutch advisory boards and planning agencies. The articles do not discuss subjects belonging to the Justice and Security domain. But they are certainly relevant in terms of methods and approach.


Dr. Bob van der Vecht
Dr. B. van der Vecht is als Senior Researcher verbonden aan TNO. Hij is tevens redactieraadlid van Justitiële verkenningen.
Artikel

Summaries

Agenda

Agenda