Samenvatting

This paper concerns the question whether in the period 2011-2017 displacement effects occurred from the Netherlands to Belgium in the context of synthetic drugs production, cannabis cultivation, and retail of illicit drugs, and if so, how these may be explained. We conclude that displacement took place in modi operandi of retail drug dealers. This is explained foremost by the policy of banning non-residents from Dutch coffeeshops in border region municipalities. Dealers and traffickers responded by switching to local distribution in Belgium as well as deliveries by drug couriers. The synthetic drugs and cannabis cultivation markets show minor changes in modi operandi, but no changes occurred in choosing production locations. Displacement effects in the context of organized drug crime must be explained from a range of factors. Reality is therefore more complex than assuming that government interventions are the main cause of a balloon effect.